Lance Roberts+

7-24-26 Trump Accounts - What Parents Need to Know

What are Trump Accounts, and could they reshape how families save and invest for the next generation? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down how Trump Accounts work, who qualifies, how they're funded, the role of employers and charitable contributions, and how these new custodial accounts compare with traditional UGMA and UTMA accounts. We also discuss investment choices, withdrawal rules, inflation considerations, and the potential addition of publicly traded securities. Beyond the mechanics, we explore the broader goal of improving financial literacy, raising financially responsible c

7-24-26 Why Google's "Bad" Earnings Were Actually Bullish

$GOOGL delivered one of its strongest quarters yet, but the market focused almost entirely on one metric: negative free cash flow. In this Short video, we explain why that reaction may be missing the bigger picture. Google reported $119 billion in revenue, while Google Cloud generated $24 billion and grew 82% year over year. Operating income rose 30% to roughly $40 billion, and operating margins expanded to 34%, highlighting the strength and profitability of the core business. The biggest concern for investors was approximately $5.9 billion in negative free cash flow. However, this is not a

7-23-26 Why Strong Earnings Make a Market Crash Less Likely

Strong earnings remain the biggest reason the odds still favor higher stock prices, despite the growing number of market crash predictions circulating online. While headlines often focus on #crudeoil, geopolitics, or other macro fears, history shows corporate earnings growth is the primary driver of long-term stock market returns. Current earnings season has been exceptionally strong so far, with companies reporting high earnings beat rates and healthy overall EPS growth—even as the market aggressively sold off $GOOGL after its earnings report. According to research from Nomura, when earning

7-23-26 Can SpaceX Fire on All Cylinders?

SpaceX has transformed the commercial space industry with reusable rockets, Starlink, and ambitious plans for Starship. But after one of the largest IPOs in history, can the company continue delivering the growth investors now expect? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine whether SpaceX's fundamentals can keep pace with its valuation. We'll discuss launch cadence, Starlink's revenue potential, Starship's development timeline, competitive pressures, capital requirements, and the risks investors should consider before chasing one of the market's most talked-about stocks. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - W

7-22-26 Don't Buy Momentum Stocks Like Semis or AI Until You Watch This

Momentum investing can generate incredible returns—but only if you understand when momentum is working for you and when it has already run too far. In this Short video, I explain why most investors lose money chasing hot sectors like semiconductors and AI. By the time these trades appear on the average investor's radar, much of the upside has often already occurred. Investors then wait for a pullback, assuming it's a buying opportunity, only to discover the correction isn't over. Momentum trading is driven far more by technicals than fundamentals. Once a trend is established, tools like rela

7-22-26 Q&A Wednesday: Spotting Market Narratives

It's Q&A Wednesday, and we're tackling some of the biggest questions investors are asking right now. How do you separate compelling market narratives from reality? We discuss practical ways to identify, question, and fact-check popular investing themes before making portfolio decisions. 0:00 INTRO 0:52 - Google, Intel, Tesla Preview 5:45 - Oil Price Futures & Iran 10:44 - How much allocation to high risk, high reward strategies? 14:44 - Which company for toilet paper price increases 15:25 - Determining when to buy stock in high momentum sector (like semi-conductors)? 19:59 - SimpleVisor S&P

7-21-26 Bitcoin's Possible Return Comes With a Lesson Most Investors Missed

#Bitcoin may be making its way back into the spotlight, but if history is any guide, the biggest determinant of investor success won't be Bitcoin itself—it will be investor behavior. When Bitcoin ETFs like $IBIT launched in early 2024, excitement was everywhere. Investors rushed into the new products, viewing them as an easier way to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional brokerage accounts. Since then, Bitcoin has risen from roughly $46,000 to more than $66,000, delivering a gain of about 44% for anyone who simply bought and held. Yet many investors failed to capture those returns. Ac

7-18-26 Candid Coffee - Naarrative Busters

Why do so many investors make costly financial decisions based on compelling stories instead of evidence? Danny Ratliff, Richard Rosso, and Lance Roberts explore how financial narratives shape investor behavior, influence markets, and often lead to poor decision-making. Drawing on Robert Shiller's concept of Narrative Economics, we examine some of the most popular investing beliefs—including the 4% Rule, dividend investing for retirement income, the debt crisis, the AI bubble, housing affordability, and the enduring "American Dream" of homeownership. We also demonstrate how artificial intell

7-21-26 Why Investors Keep Chasing What's Hot

Why do so many investors continue chasing yesterday's biggest winners? Whether it's Bitcoin, gold, silver, semiconductors, or the latest AI stock, the temptation to follow what's already surged can be difficult to resist. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn explore the psychology behind performance chasing, why investors constantly compare their portfolios to the market's hottest sectors, and how fear of missing out (FOMO) can quietly undermine long-term returns. 0:00 INTRO 0:51 - Cyclospora & Iranian Tit-for-Tat - Markets React 5:45 - Markets Unable to Hold 50-DMA 10:58 - Lettuce Pray 11:48 - The Peri

7-20-26 The Retail Investor Behavior Gap Explained

The biggest reason retail investors underperform the market isn't a lack of intelligence or information—it's behavior. Decades of research show that emotional decision-making, poor timing, and the urge to constantly "do something" during periods of volatility create a massive performance gap between the returns investors could earn and the returns they actually achieve. This data is difficult to ignore. The average retail investor trails $SPX by roughly 848 basis points. The most active traders pay an annual performance penalty of about 6.5%, while 72% of day traders lost money in 2020 desp

7-20-26 Why Retail Traders Keep Losing

Why do so many retail traders consistently underperform the market over time? Despite unprecedented access to information, sophisticated trading platforms, artificial intelligence, and social media investing communities, the average individual investor continues to lag behind long-term market returns. Lance Roberts examines the behavioral and structural reasons behind retail investors' poor performance. From emotional decision-making and chasing momentum to overconfidence, excessive trading, poor risk management, and market timing mistakes, we'll explore why doing more often leads to earning

7-19-26 What's Really Keeping This Bull Market Alive?

Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss what's really keeping this bull market alive, why markets are balancing powerful headwinds and tailwinds, and why investors should focus on probabilities instead of predictions. Markets today are caught between powerful headwinds and equally powerful tailwinds, making it increasingly difficult to rely on the extreme bullish or bearish narratives dominating financial media. On the bearish side, several macro forces deserve attention. Liquidity is expected to tighten into 2027 as the U.S. Treasury continues issuing large amounts of debt, absorbing capit

7-17-26 The Next Yield Curve Inversion Could Trigger A Real Recession

Lance Roberts & MIchael Lebowitz discuss why the yield curve didn't actually "fail" this cycle—and why its next inversion could carry a much stronger recession warning. Historically, an inverted yield curve followed by a steepening has preceded every recession because the economy typically starts from a normal growth rate. As growth slows from around 2–3% toward zero, recession becomes almost inevitable. This cycle was different. Following the pandemic, unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus pushed GDP growth to extraordinary levels, creating an artificial economic boom. Instead of slowi

7-17-26 Roth Rules and Dividend Myths

Are you making costly retirement planning mistakes without realizing it? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty tackle two of the biggest misconceptions affecting retirees and pre-retirees today, the hidden complications surrounding Roth 401(k)s, recent tax law changes, and why some recordkeepers and custodians may not yet be handling new Roth reporting rules correctly. #StockMarket #Investing #FederalReserve #MarketOutlook #FinancialPlanning

7-16-26 Want To Spot The Next Crash? Watch Credit Spreads

Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz and I discuss why investors worried about the next market downturn should spend less time watching stock prices $SPX $QQQ and more time watching the credit market. Historically, credit spreads have often widened before equities rolled over, making them one of the market's most reliable early warning indicators. Today's credit market is sending an unusually mixed message. Higher-quality junk bonds (BB- and B-rated) are trading with historically tight spreads versus Treasuries, implying investors see little default risk and are pricing in a near-perfect economi

7-16-26 Headwinds, Tailwinds, and Market Risk

Markets rarely move in a straight line. Just like the weather, investing requires understanding both the headwinds that can slow markets down and the tailwinds that can keep the rally moving forward. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the key forces shaping today's investment landscape, including stretched valuations, investor sentiment, earnings expectations, interest rates, liquidity, and the continued influence of artificial intelligence. While several risks deserve close attention, there are also powerful catalysts that could continue supporting stocks in the months ahead. The goal

7-15-26 What Bonds Know That Stocks Don't

Yesterday's CPI grabbed the headlines, but the #bondmarket barely reacted. Treasury yields ended up almost exactly where they were before the inflation report, suggesting the market had already priced in the broader economic outlook. The key takeaway is that if you want to understand where inflation and interest rates are headed, don't just watch monthly CPI reports. Watch wage growth. Wages, inflation, economic growth, and interest rates are all connected, and the bond market continuously prices those expectations into Treasury #yields. A 10-year Treasury yield reflects much more than infl

7-14-26 Q&A Wednesday - CPI, Earnings, and Market Risks

What if the biggest advantage in today's markets isn't making more trades or winning every debate—but knowing when to step back? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine two powerful ideas: why constantly trying to be "right" can actually hurt investment returns, and how today's financial markets increasingly resemble gambling platforms fueled by constant speculation, options trading, prediction markets, sports betting, and cryptocurrencies. 0:00 INTRO 0:51 - Banks' Earnings Soar on Trading Revenue 3:52 - Markets Continue Gravitating Along Rising 20-DMA 9:00 - Where Was Danny? 11:27 - What Happened

7-14-26 The Market Bubble Paradox Explained

Spotting a market bubble in real time is one of the hardest tasks in investing. If bubbles were easy to identify, everyone would sell before prices reached extremes, preventing the bubble from forming in the first place. That's the paradox: bubbles only become obvious after they've already burst. History is full of speculative booms—from railroads and Japan to the dot-com era—and today many investors believe AI stocks could be the next bubble. But relying on historical chart comparisons can be misleading. Every market cycle is shaped by different economic conditions, monetary policy, techno

7-14-26 Winning Less, Investing Better

What if the biggest advantage in today's markets isn't making more trades or winning every debate—but knowing when to step back? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine two powerful ideas: why constantly trying to be "right" can actually hurt investment returns, and how today's financial markets increasingly resemble gambling platforms fueled by constant speculation, options trading, prediction markets, sports betting, and cryptocurrencies. 0:00 INTRO 0:54 - Mixed Market & Heightened VIX on Semi-conductors 4:41 - Markets Trying to Breakout of Wedge 9:18 - Candid Coffee Tease 10:01 - The Challenge o

7-13-26 Can AI CapEx Solve America's Debt Problem?

AI is driving one of the biggest investment cycles in decades, and its impact reaches far beyond technology stocks. The real question isn't how much companies are spending on AI infrastructure—it's whether those investments can generate enough productivity growth to transform the broader economy. Lance Roberts explains how AI-related CapEx was one of the largest contributors to Q1 2026 GDP, alongside consumer spending. While imports weighed on growth, much of that weakness reflects the massive amount of semiconductor equipment being brought into the U.S. to build AI data centers. With compan

7-13-26 Why Spotting Bubbles Is So Hard

Every investor wants to identify the next market bubble before it bursts, but history shows that's far easier said than done. Whether it's technology stocks, housing, cryptocurrencies, or today's Artificial Intelligence leaders, distinguishing a true speculative bubble from a powerful long-term investment trend is one of the greatest challenges in investing. Lance Roberts explains why bubbles are so difficult to recognize in real time, the behavioral biases that cloud investor judgment, and how to manage portfolio risk without relying on perfect market timing. 0:00 INTRO 0:51 - Bank Earnin

7-10-26 The Boomerang Generation: When Adult Kids Move Back Home

More families are experiencing the Boomerang Generation phenomenon, with adult children moving back home because of housing costs, student debt, career changes, or other life events. Before saying "yes," parents should understand the financial, legal, and retirement planning implications. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty discuss how you can protect your retirement while helping your adult children, including household expenses, setting boundaries, estate planning considerations, and knowing when financial support helps—or hurts. #RetirementPlanning #BoomerangGeneration #PersonalFinance #Adul

7-10-26 Why The Low VIX Is Hiding Growing Market Risk

The $VIX remains near 16–17, suggesting investors expect a relatively calm market. But beneath that quiet surface, market conditions are becoming increasingly unstable. One of the biggest warning signs is implied correlation, which measures how closely stocks move together. It has fallen to its lowest level in roughly 20 years. That means while $SPX may appear stable, individual stocks are experiencing dramatically different price action. On any given day, some sectors are deep in the red while others surge higher, even if the index barely moves. At the same time, realized volatility has n

6-29-26 Milton Friedman Was Mostly Right

Was Milton Friedman right about inflation? Yes—but only if you quote the entire sentence. For decades, investors, economists, and financial media have repeated Friedman's famous statement that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Unfortunately, most stop at the comma, missing the critical qualification that changes the entire meaning. Lance Roberts reveals what Friedman actually meant, why money supply alone does not guarantee inflation, and how velocity, productive capacity, and credit creation determine whether higher prices become a lasting inflation problem or sim

6-26-26 $MU Biggest Risk Nobody Talks About

Micron's valuation looks almost too good to be true. The stock trades at an incredibly low P/E, an even lower forward P/E, and a PEG ratio that suggests massive future growth. But there's one risk many investors overlook: Micron isn't Nvidia $NVDA. Unlike #NVDA, which enjoys a dominant position in GPUs, #Micron operates in the highly competitive memory chip industry. Memory has historically behaved like a commodity business, where periods of soaring demand and record profits are eventually followed by oversupply, falling prices, shrinking margins, and weaker earnings. Today's AI-driven deman

6-26-26 Don't Sweat Social Security

Social Security is back in the headlines, with warnings about trust fund shortfalls, benefit cuts, and proposed reforms creating anxiety for retirees and pre-retirees alike. But before making emotional decisions, it's important to understand what is actually at risk, what Congress is likely to do, and how to build a retirement income plan that works regardless of future changes. Richard Rosso breaks down the latest Social Security concerns, including Larry Kotlikoff's recent warnings, the program's unfunded obligations, and the legislative proposals currently being discussed in Washington. We

6-25-26 Oil Is Down 25%... So Why Isn't Gas?

#CrudeOil prices have fallen nearly 25% since the US announced a peace deal with Iran, yet most drivers have seen gasoline prices decline by only about 4%. Why the disconnect? Lance Roberts explains why lower crude prices don't immediately translate into cheaper gas at the pump. While falling oil prices should eventually push inflation lower and help future CPI readings, gasoline prices are determined by much more than the price of a barrel of oil. Retail inventories, local competition, and consumer demand all play major roles, meaning the adjustment takes time. Politicians often blame the

6-25-26 The Micron Report: What's Next for Semi-conductors?

Has Micron's earnings report changed the outlook for semiconductor stocks and the broader artificial intelligence trade? With expectations running exceptionally high following a massive rally in chip stocks, investors are looking beyond headline numbers to what Micron's results and outlook may reveal about future demand, pricing power, and earnings growth across the industry. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss what Micron's report means for semiconductor stocks, market leadership, and the next phase of the AI-driven investment cycle. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 -

6-24-26 Before You Buy SpaceX, Watch This

SpaceX may be a generational company, but investors should understand the risks before buying the stock. A major issue investors need to understand is the lockup schedule. Starting in August, more insider shares become eligible for sale, increasing the available supply of stock. One of the biggest events arrives next year when roughly 46% of shares unlock in a single day, Elon Musk's stake. That doesn't mean insiders are going to dump everything. In fact, many SpaceX employees are true believers in the mission. But thousands of engineers, mechanics, welders, and other workers who accumulated

6-24-26 Q&A Wednesday: What's Really Driving This Market?

Markets can remain resilient longer than many expect, but understanding what is fueling the rally is critical for managing risk and protecting long-term financial goals. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff tackle your questions about what is really driving stocks higher, whether earnings expectations are becoming too optimistic, the risks of narrow market leadership, portfolio positioning in today's environment, bonds, inflation, artificial intelligence, and what investors should be watching next. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - Micron Earnings Day 5:30 - Dollar Ral

6-23-26 Semiconductors Flash Their First Real Correction Signal

$SMH $SOXX $EEM $EWY After months of nearly vertical gains, the semiconductor trade may be flashing its first real correction signal. One of the key indicators to watch has been South Korea’s $KOSPI index, which has become a proxy for the global AI and semiconductor boom thanks to the outsized influence of #SKHynix and #Samsung. That momentum-driven rally has been relentless, pulling capital into chip stocks, emerging markets, and even leveraged products tied to the trade. Now, however, that momentum appears to be breaking. The concern isn't just about a pullback in one market. Semiconducto

6-23-26 The New Rules of Portfolio Protection

Markets are near highs, but momentum is slowing, breadth remains narrow, buybacks are entering blackout periods, and investors are looking for ways to participate in gains without exposing themselves to a major drawdown. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn discuss practical portfolio protection strategies that don't require moving entirely to cash. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 0:58 - End of Quarter Rebalancing Begins 4:25 - Markets to Retest 50-DMA 9:17 - How to Stay Invested Without Getting Burned 14:19 - Take Some Profits & Stay Disciplined 16:10 - Two Camps of Space-X 23:3

6-20-26 Candid Coffee - Beyond Protection: What Life Insurance Can Do for You

Life insurance is one of the most misunderstood tools in financial planning. Is it simply protection, or can it play a larger role in your retirement, tax, and legacy strategy? In this episode, we break down the different types of life insurance, when coverage is necessary, and when it may not be. We discuss term versus permanent insurance, building cash value, tax-efficient strategies, long-term care considerations, and how life insurance fits into a broader financial plan. We also explore how to determine the right amount of coverage, what happens when term policies expire, alternatives fo

6-22-26 The Market's Most Important Two Weeks in 2026 Start Now

Wall Street keeps getting more bullish. One of the most unusual developments in today's market is that 2026 earnings estimates continue to move higher, while 2027 forecasts are becoming even more aggressive. Normally, analysts cut estimates as the year progresses. Instead, they're raising them. What's even more interesting is that this type of earnings acceleration is usually seen coming out of a recession, when profits are rebounding from depressed levels. Today, analysts are forecasting a similar surge in earnings growth without a recession ever occurring. As long as forward earnings esti

6-22-26 When Money Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed

Markets remain near record highs, but the technical backdrop is becoming more complex. Strong money flows continue to support asset prices, while a more hawkish Federal Reserve threatens to tighten financial conditions and limit upside potential. Lance Roberts looks at how liquidity, institutional flows, market momentum, and investor sentiment are interacting with Fed policy. We also explore whether technical support levels can withstand higher interest rates, what history suggests when liquidity and monetary policy diverge, and what investors should watch next as markets navigate this critic

6-19-26 Black Swans, SpaceX, & Retirement Reality

Richard Rosso & Jon Penn connect some of the biggest investing stories with the realities of retirement planning. From Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Social Security to Black Swan events and retirement planning, today's discussion explores how investors get drawn into powerful stories, confirmation bias, and headline-driven decisions. We examine why SpaceX is a unique market outlier, the importance of price discovery, and how unexpected events can have a greater impact on portfolios than most investors anticipate. We also cover retirement spending, liquidity, insurance, Warren Buffett's gifting strat

6-19-26 The Fed Wants Markets To Stop Listening To The Fed

For nearly two decades, markets have been trained to obsess over every word from the Federal Reserve. Investors parse economic projections, study dot plots, and try to front-run future rate decisions. But that era may be starting to end under Kevin Warsh. The biggest takeaway from Warsh's recent comments wasn't about rates. It was about the Fed's growing desire to step away from forward guidance altogether. Forward guidance became a cornerstone of Fed policy after the 2008 financial crisis under Ben Bernanke. The goal was greater transparency through economic forecasts, policy projections, a

6-18-26 The Most Important Part Of The Fed Meeting Wasn't Rates

The most important part of the latest Fed meeting wasn't the decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Markets largely expected that outcome. What mattered was the dramatic rewrite of the FOMC statement itself. Normally, Fed statements change very little from meeting to meeting. A few words are added or removed as policymakers update their view of the economy. This time was different. Large sections of the statement were deleted, rewritten, or condensed, resulting in one of the most significant communication shifts we've seen in years. The message appears to be that the Fed is resett

6-18-26 Kevin Warsh's First Day at the Fed

What happens when a new Federal Reserve Chair takes office during a period of elevated market valuations, persistent inflation concerns, and growing pressure on interest rate policy? Lance Roberts discusses what investors should watch on Kevin Warsh's first day at the Fed, including potential shifts in monetary policy, inflation management, interest rates, bond markets, and stock valuations. Will the new leadership signal a more hawkish approach, a more market-friendly stance, or simply a continuation of current policy? Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 1:02 - A Very D

6-17-26 Should You Buy #SpaceX Now? Here Is The Trap Nobody Is Talking About

$SPCX has become one of the hottest stocks in the market, fueled by investor excitement around space infrastructure (SpaceX), artificial intelligence (xAI), and global communications (Starlink) all under one umbrella. But before chasing the rally, investors should understand the biggest risk that almost nobody is discussing. Right now, #SPCX is benefiting from a classic supply-demand imbalance. There are far more buyers than sellers, and with a limited public float, that scarcity is helping drive the stock higher. However, that dynamic may not last forever. Over the next few months, lock-up

6-17-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Matters Now?

Markets have rebounded sharply from their recent correction, but investors are now asking what comes next. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions about the economy, interest rates, inflation, market valuations, bonds, retirement planning, artificial intelligence, geopolitics, and the biggest risks facing investors today. Will the Federal Reserve remain on hold? How could oil prices, earnings growth, and consumer spending impact markets during the second half of the year? Are stocks becoming too expensive, or is the bull market still intact? We break down the latest economic devel

6-16-26 The 7-Step Plan To Prepare For The Next Market Correction

Markets $SPX $QQQ may be back in bull mode after a modest 4.5% correction, but that doesn’t mean investors should ignore risk. Instead of trying to predict the next market move, focus on preparing your portfolio for whatever comes next. I break down a practical 7-step plan for navigating potential volatility later this summer while staying positioned for opportunity. 1. Keep Dry Powder Cash provides flexibility, allows investors to take advantage of pullbacks, and prevents being forced into poor decisions when markets become volatile. 2. Honor Your Stops Have clearly defined exit rules for