Ray Dalio+

Master What You Can Control

I was asked, how do I manage stress from economic shocks, geopolitical shocks, and all the things that are going on? While my typical approaches like "pain plus reflection equals progress" and meditation are highly effective, I’ll pass along another principle that I think is the best advice: The Serenity Prayer. I view this almost like a game. These macro things are happening, but there are also a lot of joyous things and choices that exist with us. It’s really up to me to navigate them. What can I control that's really important to me? What can't I control? I can't live forever, so I’m not

Ray Dalio's Advice To The New Fed Chair

In order to set successful policy it’s a time for principles, not partisanship. It’s almost a mechanical thing: what are the mechanics, the cause-effect relationships that produce the desired outcome? #Principles #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #RayDalio

Turning Failure Into Success

Failure is a teacher. If you have success, you did it right, so there is probably nothing to learn. But if you have failure, there is something to learn. You have to make the most of your failures. Over time, I developed an instinctual reaction to failure. My instinct now is to view failure as a puzzle that will give me gems if I can solve it. The puzzle is simply this: What would I do differently in the future so as not to have that result? When you solve that puzzle, you write the lesson down. That is where principles come from. #RayDalio #Principles #GrowthMindset #ContinuousLearning

Want To Speak With Me? Try My Digital Twin

I’m really excited about what’s going on with Digital Ray, which is my digital twin. I'm creating this so that everyone can have as much contact and as many conversations with me as they want—unlimited amounts, in the same sort of way that I do it. Eventually, it’s going to be a lot smarter than I am. This is all part of the evolutionary process. It’s still a bit experimental, but it really is something. If you want to have unlimited conversations with me, go online and try it. I also highly recommend taking the Principles You personality test. It’s online and only takes about 20 or 30 minut

The 4th of July 250 Years Later

Thinking about the 250th year of the United States... why does it blow me away? It's the closest thing to utopia that has taken place in all of humanity. People came from all over the world because it was a refuge and a land of opportunity. To have this mix of people come together and experience freedom and order at the same time—to work well and create opportunity together—is incredible. But it requires us to ask: How does the rule of law balance with compromise to reach an agreement for the greater good? On this 4th of July, these are my reflections. It is something to be treasured. #4th

Principles Behind 250 Years Of American Success

When you look back over the last 250 years, the United States has been an amazing place that has given people equal opportunity. People came from all over to work and live well together, becoming prosperous because you could have a good balance of freedom, rule of law, and civility. People were willing to compromise and work together because they recognized that, while imperfect, the greater system was ultimately fair. Our founding fathers had an aspirational dream of what could be possible, and that dream became a reality. It is one hell of an accomplishment, and we must not lose sight of th

Hogyan működik a gazdaság?

A gazdasági ciklusok mindenkit érintenek, megértésük mégis gyakran nehézséget okoz. Ray Dalio, világhírű amerikai befektető sablonja viszont közérthetően, a hétköznapi életből vett példákon keresztül mutatja be, hogyan alakulnak ki a válságok és konjunktúrák csupán az emberi természetből adódóan. Mi tulajdonképpen a hitel? Ki tehet a válságokról? Hogyan lábalhat ki egy állam egy válságból a lakosság jólétének csökkenése nélkül? Mi a szerepe a jegybanknak? Ezekre a kérdésekre mind választ kaphat ebből, a most már magyarul is elérhető animációs filmből! Az eredeti videó az alábbi linken érhető

The Tribute System: The new World Order

The world order is definitely changing, but it happens at a pace like watching a child grow—the evolutionary change can almost be elusive to us. Today, we are seeing a shift in the perception of the United States and its willingness to endure the high costs of war. This shift is leading world leaders to view the US as potentially less reliable in enforcing the global order, which fundamentally impacts international alliances. At the same time, we have a rising power in China. We are moving away from a strictly American world order. As we enter this new era, we must find ways to resolve conf

The Changing World Order: Ray Dalio

It seems to me that most people are hooked on news items that last about a day or two and are then forgotten about, as other news items replace them, while failing to see how things are evolving and why. That’s not good for anyone. There are big cycles unfolding almost exactly how they have repeatedly unfolded in the past, and they are being missed. If you’re interested in seeing these big cycles presented in an entertaining way, I am offering an overview of them here in my 5-minute animated video, Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order. And if you'd like to see a more complete

What The UN Can Learn From The World Cup

The World Cup games are really something else. Beyond the competition and the games themselves—which are fantastic—there’s this incredible element of how people from different countries interact with each other. People bring their unique personalities and nationalities, and everyone just gets along with so much respect. Whether it’s the Scots bringing their spirit and bagpipes to the games, or the Japanese fans cleaning up the stadium after a match, it’s a beautiful reflection of what the United Nations—and all countries—should be. It brings out a joy, laughter, and a warmth that gives us a re

What Drives Me Now

Looking ahead to the next 24 months, my main focus is passing along whatever I have that could be of benefit to others. At 76, that is the driving force behind everything I am doing. It is exactly why I wrote about the mechanics of debt - so people could study those mechanics. I still love playing my investment game, which I am now doing for my family office, and I am making a platform so that everybody can do that sort of thing. Those are my aspirations professionally. Personally, my focus is on family, my grandkids, and simply savoring life.

The Tribute System: The New World Order

On Chinese Culture, the Tribute System, the 100 Years of Humiliation, The Art of War, “One China with Taiwan Part of China,” Where We Are Now, and Where We Are Headed

The Big Cycle

I believe we are currently on the brink. We are entering a particularly risky period expected between the 2026 midterm election and the 2028 presidential election. At the same time, the monetary situation is becoming increasingly threatening. The U.S. government currently spends $7 trillion while only taking in approximately $5 trillion, resulting in 40% overspending. While the government has a significant amount of debt to finance, the demand for that debt is falling. This decline in demand is driven by standard supply and demand factors, as well as fears from debt holders regarding potential

Ray Dalio: An AI Optimist

There are a number of major forces operating right now, but let's look at the AI force. AI is going to enhance productivity and bring costs down over time, but it's also going to bring jobs down a lot. It is a huge wealth gap producer. The question still is: how do you distribute that wealth and its benefits, like education? Right now, 60% of Americans have below a sixth-grade reading level. How do you make that population productive?

Investment Principles: What Should You Do Under Existing Conditions?

This note is about how to play the investment game given what’s happening now.

Principled Thinking and AI Need to Go Together

What is the best approach to being effectively intelligent now that human intelligence and artificial intelligence are merging?

The Debt / Credit System

The credit system functions like a circulatory system that delivers nutrients and buying power to various parts of the economy. A system is considered healthy when borrowed money is used to generate productivity, which in turn produces income. However, it becomes unhealthy when debts and debt service costs increase relative to income. This debt service acts like plaque in the circulatory system, squeezing out spending. Because one individual's debt represents another individual's asset, with holders expecting a good return, increased selling leads to supply and demand issues. When combined wit

Ray Dalio's Life Advice

Own your life and take responsibility to make it great. When life doesn't give you what you want, don't be angry—learn how reality works and develop principles to get you where you want to be. Be radically open-minded, and recognize that if you want to be really successful, you have to work really hard. Continue the graduation conversation with my AI Twin, Digital Ray in Beta: https://tr.ee/m7nH56

Why I Recommend Being a Global Macro Long-Short Investor

I’m at a stage of my life in which I want to pass along principles I’ve learned that have helped me to people who want them, especially principles about investing because I have a demonstrated subject matter expertise in that area, which is important.

Ray Dalio On Money And Gold

Put simply, money is a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth. But there are differences between fiat money (the paper money we use day-to-day) and hard money (like gold) that are important to understand.

3 Rules for a Successful Country

The foundations of a successful country are simpler than most people think–productive citizens, a civil environment, and peace. If you understand that framework, you should be able to understand where we are in the big cycle of political and social order and disorder. History shows us that when the causes people are willing to fight for are more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy.

US #Financial Heath & The #Debt Cycle

When debt levels reach extreme sizes relative to income, governments are left with a limited set of choices. They can cut spending, raise taxes, restructure the debt, or print money. History shows that most systems end up relying heavily on the last option, but printing money doesn’t eliminate the problem–it just shifts how the debt cycle plays out. Understanding this dynamic is key to understanding the economic environment we’re in.

Success Is Not Money Or Status

Knowing your nature is critically important to understanding what success is for you. I can't tell you literally what is best for you, but I can tell you that success is not having a lot more money or status than you need. Having the time and freedom to do what you most want to do is far more important. What is success for most people? It is a matter of having meaningful work and meaningful relationships. If you can make your work and your passion one and the same, and do it with people who you care about and care about you, you will have a happy, successful life. Explore Principles for the

Approach To Life Matters More Than The Diploma

The most valuable thing you can have in the next phase of your life is not your diploma or even what you've learned thus far. It is your approach to life. If you take advantage of your experiences—good or painful—as opportunities to learn, you will find great principles that will help you deal with your realities well. In the process, you will discover your nature and find excellent work and excellent relationships that will suit you, which will give you the best possible life. You can watch the full speech: https://youtu.be/rnzz0YJpc9o

60/40 Split

The classic 60/40 portfolio is the most popular strategy in the world—but history shows it’s far from safe. In fact, those who use it have been totally or nearly wiped out in dozens of countries throughout history. That’s why I call it "the scariest table in investing." It reveals a hidden truth: without a back-tested game plan to anticipate economic cycles and debt crises, you’re not prepared. At this stage in my life, it’s my primary goal to help others understand concepts like this one because they’ve been so helpful to me. If you’re interested in learning more about how to create your ow

Ray Dalio’s Most Important Life Principle

One of my favorite principles, learned through experience, is that pain plus reflection equals progress. I developed a habit of viewing pain as a signal of a problem. If you treat that problem as a puzzle to solve, it ultimately yields a gem in the form of a great principle. I learned to value painful experiences because they became my best learning experiences and led to the most significant advances. Learning from direct encounters with reality is a much better way to succeed in life than simply remembering what others try to teach. You can watch the full speech at the link in my bio. #prin

The Formula For A Successful Life

I believe success is a matter of having meaningful work and meaningful relationships—work and relationships that you are thrilled by. If you can make your work and your passion one and the same, and you can do it with people who you care about and care about you, you will have a happy, successful life. You can watch the full speech: https://youtu.be/rnzz0YJpc9o

Long Island University Commencement Speech

For me, who graduated from LIU 55 years ago, to pass along what I’ve learned over those 55 years to the graduating class of 2026 was a déjà vu joy.

The Biggest Mistake New Graduates Make

When entering this second phase of life, you are almost certainly making the mistake of thinking you know more than you actually know—especially if you got good grades in school. You were taught that success is a matter of learning what you were taught and not making mistakes. That probably made you a bit arrogant, like I was when I graduated. But it is living life and encountering your realities that will truly teach you. The question is, will you learn? You can watch the full speech: https://youtu.be/rnzz0YJpc9o

Ray Dalio: Long Island University Commencement Speech

For me, who graduated from @LongIslandUniversityLIU 55 years ago, to pass along what I’ve learned over those 55 years to the graduating class of 2026 was a déjà vu joy. If you want to learn in 15 minutes the most important things I’ve learned in the last 55 years, you can listen to my commencement speech here. I hope you find it helpful, and as always, I welcome your questions and thoughts.

Why U.S.-China Relations and Ocean Health Matter More Than Ever

There are few things that are more important for the health of the world than the health of U.S.-China relations and the health of our oceans. For over 40 years, I have cared deeply about both, and I was thrilled that @OceanX was able to bring together American and Chinese students and early-career scientists on a goodwill mission last month. Watch here to see a little bit of what it was like and the meaningful relationships that came out of it.

The Truth About Tarrifs

While there’s a lot being written about the Supreme Court decisions on tariffs, I wanted to take a moment to step back and clearly lay out my thoughts on them. Many people think of tariffs as purely disruptive, but throughout history, they’ve been a primary source of government revenue. In an ideal world, you wouldn’t have tariffs — each country would make and trade the things they are capable of producing efficiently. But as the world becomes increasingly fragmented, we have to look beyond pure economic efficiency and consider the necessity of self-sufficiency. For that reason, tariffs are

The Big Thing: We Are In A World War That Isn’t Going To End Anytime Soon.

For today, that is most importantly that the US-Israel-Iran war is just part of a world war that we are in and that isn’t going to end anytime soon.

The Concept and Mechanics of an All Weather Portfolio

I believe that some of the most important investment principles I can pass along are about what an “All Weather Portfolio” is and how to build such a portfolio.

It All Comes Down to Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz: The “Final Battle"

I have found that most wars are filled with big disagreements about what is likely to happen and big surprises.

Investing In Light Of The Big Cycle

Because so many people asked, I am now passing along to you the book's next chapter, "Investing in Light of the Big Cycle."

It’s Official: The World Order Has Broken Down

At the Munich Security Conference, the post-1945 world order was pronounced dead by most leaders.

What I Have For You

The principles and tools that I’m passing along are about life, work, economics, and investments because those four areas are the ones I’ve worked hard on, developed principles for, and have a built t

2025

Naturally, as a systematic global macro investor leaving 2025, I reflected on the mechanics of what happened, particularly in the markets.

The Big Dangers of Big Bubbles with Big Wealth Gaps

Since I have been a global macro investor for over 50 years, and learned a lot of lessons from history, naturally a lot of what I pass along is about that.

Gold is the Safest Money

Recently, a lot of people asked me a lot of questions about gold, so I invited anyone who cared to ask me questions about gold to do so, and I answered most of them.

My AI Clone and What We Can Expect from AI Clones

The purpose of this note is to tell you: 1) why I’m excited about my AI clone, 2) how AI clones are significantly different from AI agents and LLMs, 3) what it takes to make AI clones so that they are as good or better than the people they’re based on, and 4) what I have built so far, why I built it, and what I imagine will be built in the future.

How Countries Go Broke: In a 5-Minute Read

I wrote this note to share what How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, says in a nutshell.

I have also been sharing parts of it online which you can get for free here: bi

I have also been sharing parts of it online which you can get for free here: bit.ly/4c57ATQ

If you want a copy of How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, it's now available

If you want a copy of How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, it's now available for pre-order at Amazon (bit.ly/4l1BlZQ), Barnes & Noble (bit.ly/4c3fTj2), and other booksellers. It has just gone to the printer and will be on sale June 3.

I am about to put out How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, which explains the

I am about to put out How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, which explains the mechanics behind big debt cycles and debt crises because these mechanics are especially important to understand now.

Over my more than 50 years of operating as a global macro investor and through m

Over my more than 50 years of operating as a global macro investor and through my research, I discovered some timeless and universal cause/effect relationships that helped me successfully navigate what was likely to happen.

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle As you probably know by now, I'm in a st

How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle As you probably know by now, I'm in a stage of life that has led me to want to pass along previously undisclosed principles that helped me, rather than to keep them to myself...