You are Hiring a Person Not a Subcontinent: A Basic Error in The Interpretation of Statistics.
Outlining a basic error in statistical interpretation: statistics works on aggregates, not individual instances. You can only use statistical properties when dealing with groups not individuals --except when the variance is zero --in which case why use statistics?
Even if IQ worked outside of severe deficits, it wouldn't be applicable to decisions concerning single individuals.
Applies to President Biden's pancreatic cancer.
I use as example on IQ arguments by bullshit vendor Geoffrey Miller.
A discussion with Pierre Zalloua about his book Ancestors on the Genetic & Cultural History of the Levant. It is the first scientific history of the area, which debunks many historical accounts.
Does the Ketogenic Diet Work for Brain Cancer? Finding Signal in a Small Sample.
Does the Ketogenic Diet Work for Brain Cancer? Doctors find it hard to do a trial so many make you believe that it does not work rather than simply claiming "it is just untested" (conflating the absence of evidence for evidence of absence).
Just to show, in conclusion to my article "IQ is a pseudoscientific swindle", that psychologists arguing with it proved that IQ doesn't explain up to 99.5% of things it is supposed to explain. It's not my data, but theirs that they did not interpret correctly.
https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39
Universa's Bernoulli for Portfolio Simulation: Correcting the Empirical Distribution
The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. "Real tails" do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails.
Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced "Ber-noo-yi" not "Ber-noo-li", much like consigliere is pronounced "consiyyere".
Geoengineering -- Mao's Four Pest Problem -- Brexit -- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government -- The "LongTermism" nonsense of SBF -- The Final Chapter
+ Why Ilmanen-style "simulations" of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of 1) need to extrapolate extremes, and 2) The Niederhoffer problem.
+ The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.
+The Turkey Problem
+ Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans
+ Meeting Kahneman
+ The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.
STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024
TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling.
Stephen Wolfram's discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.
How to bluff when you don't know what you are talking about.
Humphrey Bogard and his friend infiltrated a Nazi cell in New York, impersonating two Nazi engineers. They had to bluff their way by answering questions when they really didn't know anything about the subject matter.
MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)
What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information?
A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What's her or his failure rate?
I didn't realize that the trick wasn't in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.
No appearances yet. If you've seen Nassim Nicholas Taleb as a guest somewhere, hit + suggest to add it.
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Minds whose work overlaps with Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s.
