Part of the problem is that there's some inconsistency among different proxy rec
Part of the problem is that there's some inconsistency among different proxy reconstructions of ENSO over the past millennium. Something I discussed in this @pnas.org article back in 2020: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
"El Niño is being supercharged by climate change, study finds" by Doyle Rice for
"El Niño is being supercharged by climate change, study finds" by Doyle Rice for @usatoday.com: www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...
[I appreciate the data & study, but differ with the authors on the interpretation as spelled out below]
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Supplementing this thread with a reminder that the most recent IPCC assessment s
Supplementing this thread with a reminder that the most recent IPCC assessment shows very little consensus as to whether or not El Niño events will increase in amplitude with warming:
See my full thread. I show evidence of that from my work with Mark Cane et al tw
See my full thread. I show evidence of that from my work with Mark Cane et al two decades ago (see below). I suppose it depends on how you define "substantial". The expected huge changes are in the pre-instrumental era, frustratingly during intervals where they have no corals!
Our simulations (see above) predict large increases in ENSO variability during m
Our simulations (see above) predict large increases in ENSO variability during mid 1200s & early 1600s due to volcanic forcing events, but they have no coral data from these time intervals, so there’s no way to see if their corals capture that behavior--a critical test in my view.
In a previous study w/ Mark Cane & co using the Cane-Zebiak model of El Niño (mi
In a previous study w/ Mark Cane & co using the Cane-Zebiak model of El Niño (michaelmann.net/sites/defaul...) we showed that natural (volcanic+solar) forcing leads to an uptick in amplitude of ENSO variability during the last two decades of 20th century that closely matches the pattern seen above.
Their instrumental SST data (see below) show a decline in recent decades in the
Their instrumental SST data (see below) show a decline in recent decades in the amplitude of variability during the precise period when anthropogenic radiative forcing has increased the most. That goes against the hypothesis of an increase in ENSO variability related to anthropogenic forcing.
"As super El Niño strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifyin
"As super El Niño strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos" by @borenbears.bsky.social for @apnews.com [Important data & study; But like UNC's John Bruno, I disagree w/ the authors' interpretation of the data]: www.independent.co.uk/news/el-nino...
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continuation of assault on climate model projections by fossil fuel/climate deni
continuation of assault on climate model projections by fossil fuel/climate denial lobby & attack dogs (Trump/GOP, Roger Pielke Jr. of Koch-funded think tank AEI and now failed academic and Trump appointee professional climate denier Dr. Matthew Wielicki). See: thebulletin.org/2026/05/sorr...
"It Just Got Way Easier to Sue Fossil Fuel Companies Over Climate Change" by Rac
"It Just Got Way Easier to Sue Fossil Fuel Companies Over Climate Change" by Rachel Santarsiero for @motherjones.com: www.motherjones.com/environment/...
It appears that 2024 will retain its record for warmest day globally (with 2023
It appears that 2024 will retain its record for warmest day globally (with 2023 coming in 2nd), while 2026 establishes a new record for warmest oceans from 60N-60S: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
What is tricky is separating the amplitude of individual events from the warming
What is tricky is separating the amplitude of individual events from the warming trend itself. Just 6 years ago, it very much looked like the trend was toward a more La Niña-like climate. So we will have to see what things look like a decade from now to know if this was a fluke or part of a trend.
Very pleased to announce that Polish translation of #ScienceUnderSiege by @peter
Very pleased to announce that Polish translation of #ScienceUnderSiege by @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social & yours truly, is now available!
lubimyczytac.pl/ksiazka/5255...
Since the current El Niño appears to be similar, in "flavor", to the '97/'98 El
Since the current El Niño appears to be similar, in "flavor", to the '97/'98 El Niño, by analogy with that event, we can expect a wet winter on the west coast and an exceptionally warm winter in the northern half of the U.S.
Latest (Aug 19) El Niño forecast from @climate.columbia.edu
iri.columbia.edu/ou
Latest (Aug 19) El Niño forecast from @climate.columbia.edu
iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis....
The composite forecast is now for a new record Niño3.4 peak ~3.5C later this year:
My interview earlier today on @cnn.com International on the wildfires, heat dome
My interview earlier today on @cnn.com International on the wildfires, heat domes and floods we've witnessed this summer, and the role being played by human-caused warming + the effects of an emerging monster El Niño event.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-je...
I'll be on @cnn.com International today ~3:30pm ET talking about the wildfires,
I'll be on @cnn.com International today ~3:30pm ET talking about the wildfires, heat domes and floods we've witnessed this summer, and the role being played by human-caused planetary warming + the effects of an emerging monster El Niño event. Please tune in! www.cnn.com/world
Print version! | "Pourquoi les canicules se répètent-elles en France ?" ["Why do
Print version! | "Pourquoi les canicules se répètent-elles en France ?" ["Why do heatwaves keep occurring in France?"] by @sfoucart.bsky.social for @lemonde.fr
"Pourquoi les canicules se répètent-elles en France ?" ["Why do heatwaves keep o
"Pourquoi les canicules se répètent-elles en France ?" ["Why do heatwaves keep occurring in France?"] by @sfoucart.bsky.social for @lemonde.fr:
www.lemonde.fr/article-offe...
[En Francais; English translation to come]
"July Was Hottest Month in History of Contiguous US, Breaking Dust Bowl Record"
"July Was Hottest Month in History of Contiguous US, Breaking Dust Bowl Record" by @corbettjessica.bsky.social for @commondreams.org: www.commondreams.org/news/july-20...
"July was just the hottest month on record in the US. So what does that mean for
"July was just the hottest month on record in the US. So what does that mean for August?" by @juliaelenamusto.bsky.social for @the-independent.com: www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...
“July was hottest month ever recorded in US as heatwaves scorched country” by @o
“July was hottest month ever recorded in US as heatwaves scorched country” by @olliemilman.bsky.social for @theguardian.com: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
No, I'm not missing your point at all. The displacement effect you speak of is m
No, I'm not missing your point at all. The displacement effect you speak of is minimal as long as AI is responsible for a minimal fraction of the electricity demand (0.3-0.5%). If that fraction becomes significantly larger, then it will have the displacement effect you allude to.
Yes, and we have to distinguish between short-term effects related to major rece
Yes, and we have to distinguish between short-term effects related to major recent El Nino events, and the longer-term trend which is well-established but more modest. See: www.science.org/content/arti...
"State of the Climate: A Dimming, Overheated Planet, With Degraded Oceans" by Bo
"State of the Climate: A Dimming, Overheated Planet, With Degraded Oceans" by Bob Berwyn for @insideclimatenews.org: insideclimatenews.org/news/1008202...
No, that's not correct. Emissions from A.I. are at present a very small fraction
No, that's not correct. Emissions from A.I. are at present a very small fraction of total carbon emissions ~0.01% and 0.6% globally (see:
www.climateimpact.com/news-insight...).
A more legitimate concern is that this has the potential to scale up significantly in the future.
My interview earlier this evening on #BBCNews
about the climate change-fueled w
My interview earlier this evening on #BBCNews
about the climate change-fueled wildfires currently ravaging Europe and the myths about them promoted by Trump: www.youtube.com/watch?v=knxC...
