Joachim Klement+

Higher deficits cause inflation

It is a long-established fear among bond investors and economists that a country that runs higher budget deficits will eventually suffer from higher inflation in order to indirectly ‘default’ on its debt.

Knowledge and experience are what count

Which equity analysts are voted star analysts in the annual beauty parade provided by a variety of companies?

Let the climate wars begin

Climate change increases the risk of floods, droughts and other natural catastrophes that cause extreme stress, particularly in poor societies.

It’s not the fault of right-wing news

I am definitely not breaking new ground when I say that the US public is polarised.

Here is one reason why better managed firms succeed

A couple of months ago, management consulting firm McKinsey published a report where they took the management of UK businesses to task.

If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast

In my regular research (behind a paywall), I have been saying for a while that I think the future of AI is not large language models (LLM), but small language models (SLM) run on local desktop computers or even mobile phones.

When it comes to inflation, ‘in’ is better than ‘out’

One of the advantages that countries outside the Eurozone have is that they can control their monetary policy.

The UK’s experience with the National Living Wage

In the first half of 2016, the UK economy experienced a major shock.

Data-centre reality check could slam brakes on AI earnings boom

My latest opinion piece for Reuters is out today.

Life in Europe is just better

Today is my last post before my usual extended summer break.

What’s so special about a 2% inflation target?

It’s Fed Day again, and the Fed has to deal with inflation rates that remain stubbornly above its 2% target.

Keep your politics out of your investments

I keep telling everyone that you should keep your politics out of your investment portfolio.

How fast money is warping market logic

Another opinion piece from me at Reuters ROI.

Graduating in the age of AI

My wife’s niece (my niece-in-law?) graduated from college in the US this year.

Pets are soooo worth it

It is well-established that owning pets, on average, makes people happier.

Attracting investor flows through customer data

For decades, Meta, Alphabet and others have mined customer data to sell ads and other products to business customers.

If interest rates rise, do we have to worry about credit defaults?

Thanks to rising inflation, central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are pondering whether they have to hike interest rates.

Which news is incorporated slowly?

The news flow (or rather, deluge) is relentless, and nobody can stay ahead of all the news published on markets and companies anymore.

Guardian readers have fewer children

I sometimes hear people lament that young people are reluctant to have children because they don’t want them to deal with a world that gets destroyed by climate change.

The failure gap

Apparently, most people vastly underestimate how often things around them go wrong.

What’s in an odd number?

I used to collect wine (back when I still drank alcohol), and as part of that, I sometimes went to fine wine auctions.

Jevons’ Paradox seems alive and well

While many people fear that AI will eliminate millions of white-collar jobs, many have argued that Jevons’ Paradox indicates that the opposite may happen.

Why NATO should ask Ukraine for help

A bit more geopolitics from me at Reuters.

Are Europeans finally becoming stock investors?

To pre-empt the inevitable comment about headlines that are questions, the answer to this one is an unequivocal ‘kind of’.

When regulation is good for business

By now, I think I have established both my view that I am a fan of ESG investing and the benefits of regulating what is and isn’t a sustainable investment, and my view that in Europe, ESG regulation has gone too far and become too costly.

There is never good news in Iran

Let’s face it, most of us form our opinions about other countries based on the news reports we get from these countries.

The hidden risks from synthetic risk transfers

Synthetic Risk Transfers (SRT), where banks keep loans nominally on their books but sell the risk exposure to other investors via credit-linked notes or financial guarantees, have become big business, particularly in Europe.

A blessing in disguise for the EU?

Donald Trump’s tariffs are upending global trade in many ways, both intended and unintended.

It’s a lazy week

Yesterday, I gave professional investors an idea of how to be lazy when it comes to market returns in the second month of a quarter.

Just do what you did last month

If you are a professional investor covering US or European stocks, you are about to come to the end of another busy earnings season.

Slashing immigration could lead to higher taxes

My latest opinion piece for Reuters Open Interest is out this morning.

Repeat after me: Higher minimum wages are good for business

Increases in minimum wages in a country or different states of the US are sure to make headlines.

The name is Spy, Corporate Spy

Espionage is a constant threat to governments and the military everywhere.

Labour shortages are coming. What are businesses going to do?

In an ageing population, labour shortages are intensifying gradually as the working-age population starts to shrink.

AI can’t even forecast inflation

Most readers will be aware that the US Department of Defence has signed a contract with OpenAI to use their models to develop AI weapon systems.

Are stocks a good inflation hedge?

Longtime readers of mine will know that I do not believe in the story that stocks are a hedge against inflation.

The real reason why some companies are moving to the US

Sometimes, you come across a story that seems too good to be true.

Unpredictability creates alpha: Fund picking

Yesterday, I wrote about a new paper by Lauren Cohen and her colleagues that trained an AI to forecast the investment decisions of fund managers.

Unpredictability creates alpha: Stock picking

Regular readers of these missives know that I sometimes come across papers that are so full of important insights that I discuss them in several posts.

Is nonlinear momentum the answer?

I have been harping on about how life is nonlinear and that linear approaches to investing are bound to be inferior (see here for an example in economics and one in finance).

Standardisation helps

Investors and businesses alike complain about the growing need for ESG reporting and the standardisation and formalisation of it all.

More than you think

How much money do you need to live a contented life?

No, stocks are not a good inflation hedge

My latest post for Reuters is online.

China is expanding its trade war toolbox

While we in the West were focusing on the Iran war, the Chinese government has calmly implemented new regulations on industrial and supply chain security. It is, on the one hand, a law that aims to “enhance the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains, and safeguard economic and social stability and national security”

Which imports really matter for inflation

Thanks to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we are experiencing rising inflation all over the globe again.

Women get worse investment advice

There are plenty of differences between men and women; how they invest their money, how they deal with risk, etc.

Retail investors overestimate the impact of ESG investments

When I talk to retail investors, I am surprised by how often I hear claims that investing in a green fund or green stocks reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

The UK is hopeless

I mean, that goes without saying, but a new article in the Journal of Happiness has shown exactly how hopeless it is.