Claudia Sahm+

Read the Minutes, Fade the Presser

Warsh's explanation of the July hold was not the Committee's. Heading into September, the FOMC minutes have the reaction function that matters.

Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feet

Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech is a test of the Chair, and of the Fed's credibility.

You asked, I answered

Your questions on Warsh, the federal debt, inflation and labor data, the Fed's design, and public speaking

Thank you, and ask me anything

A Q&A for paid subscribers. Questions by Wednesday, answers next weekend.

Warsh: "We're Sticking With It" ... Until January

This week, Warsh affirmed PCE inflation as the Fed's target, then put that yardstick on the chopping block.

Making a Statement

The FOMC statement, not the press conference, may be the best window into where the Fed is headed. Here's my mockup for Wednesday.

2% of What?

Redefining inflation is not the way to achieve price stability.

What will it take for the Fed to hike?

The June FOMC minutes laid out two scenarios, and the committee is split right down the middle on the outlook for inflation.

Where Is the Fed Headed?

Independence, inflation, and communication

Will the Shadow Fed Chair Please Stand Up?

Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost.

A Good Family Fight

Warsh says he wants one, inflation demands it, and the dot plot is how we'd see it.

Inflation Is High. Is It Broad?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently argued for alternative ways of looking at inflation, such as trimmed means or medians, which, in his words, capture the “underlying inflation rate” and “not … the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef.” Before evaluating his claims, it is useful to explore the distribution of inflation and see what appears to be driving inflation.

Consumer Sentiment Isn't Politics, but Politics Is Reshaping It

A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path.

Words That Mattered: Fed Chair Jay Powell

Today, May 15, is Jay Powell’s final day as Fed Chair.

Signs of Stability, Signs of Strain

April's Jobs Day is Friday.

A Fed Day for the History Books

After eight years, Wednesday will be the last time that Powell steps up to the podium as Fed Chair.

Fed Chair Apprentice

Tuesday, April 21, is a day Kevin Warsh has long awaited: his Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair.

Whiplash Economy

Expect the unexpected has become the most useful rule of thumb for the economy.

Powell Has Been Here Before

It’s three weeks into the war in Iran, and when the dust settles after today’s Fed meeting, the potential economic costs are likely to feel more real.

More Questions Than Answers: Thinking Through Recession Risks

Events are moving fast in the Middle East.

Trust in Numbers

U.S. economic statistics are not being manipulated, but underinvestment has intensified.

Update: A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

Today’s employment report confirmed that payroll growth stalled last year.

A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession

Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.

Kevin Warsh

Last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair.

Jay Powell isn't enough to save the Fed

Another week, another attack on the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration.

There are no shortcuts to affordability

As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.

The Future of Data

Today should have been Jobs Day, with the November employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but the federal statistical agencies are still working through delays due to the 43-day government shutdown that ended last month.

A Curious Kind of Cycle

Today’s post is an excerpt of a talk I gave last week at the Forecasters Club of New York.

Slow down and protect things: Fed independence and the Supreme Court

The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court.

Fed today, Fed tomorrow

Fed Chair Powell has warned that there are “no risk-free paths now.” He’s referring to the challenging situation for the Fed with the risk of inflation persistently above target and the risk of employment weakening.

Who will be in charge of interest rates?

Fed independence is a question of power.

Framing up the next move in monetary policy: Powell at Jackson Hole

The main event of the week in economic policy may sound bland: “Economic Outlook and Framework Review.” However, Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole will be anything but bland.

Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

After an avalanche of data last week, there are more signs of a slowing economy.

Brick by brick: Fed independence

Two foundational protections of the Fed’s independence in monetary policy are under threat: the tenure of Fed officials and the control of its budget.